Yesterday already recovered!

Thursday was a bad day, I ended up finishing down 1080 euros as I put trades on overnight which lost a little. On Friday the Euribor-Schatz spread went more and then retraced enough to profit. The fly had a ridiculously tight range, about 4 ticks for most the day, but amazingly there were so many opportunities. Although you had to get the legs almost absolutely right on entry and exit. There was a really good hour in all 4 markets that I trade around 3pm to 4pm and by 5pm I was out the office and up 1000 euros exactly on the day!

Unfortunately I am down on the week after costs, I did a huge amount of trades, but that was because it was so tough, the 1200 or so euros I made all eaten up by costs. Anyway I think i did a good job on a tough week.

Sweet

Carrying on from my last post.. I sold the high again before the close last night and still had 1 clip on from Tuesday. This morning everything opened lower! 2 ticks below the high, I bought 77.5s and then the rest at 77s. I wasn't sure if I should have left just 4 by 5 on, but it was soon back up and I sold 1/2 tick of the high and took 1.5 ticks on it and it has been ranging nicely and now just waiting for US jobless weekly claims.

4 days left of the month which includes today and I have just broken through what is my most profitable month since I started trading in May 2010. To think I was applying for jobs back in software just 2 months ago, it wasn't until I spoke with a local taxi driver about his story which involved shares and he asked what I did so I told him how I was trading, by the end of the conversation he made me realise I shouldn't give up on trading. I think it was the following day I got in contact with previous backer.

14 hour days are really taking their toll, I feel so drained and feel less socialable than ever haha.. too much pc time.

EDIT: Just stopped out for the day, -955, the figure blew the spread out... what can u do.. just hope I didn't puke the high. After feeling so good earlier this sucks but meh I think yesterday has helped to soften the blow emotionally, as I made 844 after closing trades of this morning.

A long and exhausting day

Yesterday the spread came down a bit and then pushed back up and through new highs, I was doing well until about 6pm when it pushed higher and closed on a new high. I had over 60% of my maximum size on and held it overnight. My position was €250 a tick and this morning it opened up a further 2 ticks against me. I put on the rest of my size and was trying to figure out my PnL, as settlements from yesterday affect my PnL due to the fact I still had positions on from yesterday. I figured when I was printing -1200 I was pretty much at my stop. Once again I seemed to have dodged a bullet as it didn't push anymore and the spread had a 1.5 tick range for the rest of the day. I did my best to get in an out and reduce my position. I felt dizzy, tired, nervous at times... bored and excited, there was one point my PnL was going from +40 to -1000 within a minute as different prices traded but nothing moved, I was just thinking this is so insane. I had some flys on at this point which wasn't helping me relax, hence the huge swings.

Right now its trading 79.5s and I am short just 12 by 15 and printing +145, I don't have much on so my PnL is actually around this figure. I tried to picture me blogging about an amazing recovery about 10 hours ago and I couldn't picture it. It seemed too likely I was going to have to buy the euribor at so many points to stop out. These last few days and even last week or so have been incredibly tough, I don't know what to do differently other than just admit its been tough and keep on being aggressive to survive and not ever let myself hold huge positions and hope it goes my way. I have fighted to reduce my size at every opportunity and need to always make sure I continue with this attitude as it helps me out on days like this. The spread has become more volatile recently. From December to April I was out of trading and seemed I missed an easy period for spreads. In December I screwed up badly, although spreads were insanely tough to trade, I just hope it's not gonna be like that all over again, as that would mean I only got about 7 weeks of good spreading in!

Tough day

Today the euribor-schatz spread went up, about 4 ticks is enough to stop me out if there are no retraces, so I was pretty close to stopping out earlier. 76s was my stop :D

It opened quite high, so I sold 71.5s, which I thought was good, as 71s were kinda tricky initially, I sold up to 72.5s and bought back almost all of it at 71.5 and started selling at 72s. I sold everything up to 73.5 and then it went to 75.5 and I couldn't sell anymore, I was maxed out.. when it came back I unloaded 37% of my sells off between 74 and 74.5, above my best sell. I then just traded the range and now positive so now aiming to cover costs, which would be awesome. Made a record number of trades today, and really concentrated hard from 7am to 6pm to try and dig myself out the mess I was in.

Edit: finished +€195 not enough to cover todays costs but to have a result like this on a day like today, I am very happy!

Probably done for the week

Almost 5pm and won't stay too much longer.. just over €2100 for the week. I have chance of making this month my best so far.. getting close and still 7 days left. Averaging €445 gross a day for the month thus far!

~ ^_^

Reflecting on the week

Thought I might blog to relieve a little bit of stress. Last week was good and Monday of this week was also good. Since then it's been so frustrating I have been so pissed off at times I can't describe it. The euribor has been massively implied/spoofed and u can't lean it, sometimes the offer has next to noone selling and then the bid gets all taken and the price below too.. and your left going what the hell! If I were to buy the euribor and sell it 3 prices higher it would be 300 euros. So when 2 prices dissapear you can imagine how that completely kills your day when you just took the schatz off. Yesterday I had bought the bobl and sold the bund and was leaning to sell the schatz to complete my entry and 3 prices got sold on the schatz in one order... so I was like er what.. next one went and I took 130 euro loss legging out the bobl and bund.

Basicially legging in these markets is all u can do because its so tight but its just screwing you over so badly at times. Today wasn't as bad, I spent 3 minutes waiting on the schatz then scratched the bor then everything went and I saw I would have made 100 euros 2 minutes later, bought the bund and lost 80 euros on it then it went rocketing up and I sold the lowest point to get out, left just even more frustrated.

Despite that, Tuesday and Wednesday I pretty much broke even and would be up after rebates and today is going pretty okay up 500 euros now, having been down about that amount earlier.

Spread blowing out

The chart belows shows the Euribor Sept12 - Schatz June11 spread which I have been trading.

Since thursday it has blown out, going up and barely retracing. Today I bought the dip and messed up as I got disconnected whilst legging out and then started to sell at 87.68s, I sold every half tick up to 87.71s and was then getting ready to puke for -1000 euros at 87.72s. Luckily it bounced of this level and ranged between 70.5s and 71.5s for several hours. I made the most of this opportunity, taking over 60% of my size off and being aggressive to improve my position. I am now short just 1 clip and its 8.30pm so probably holding this overnight. The spread originally blew out over Trichets conference in which he made a comment about rates being on hold until August (I think it was)... also concerns about Greece and the Eurozone have made the euribor rally, meaning the markets now expect less of a rate hike than they did previously, which is why this spread has blown out, as the euribor has been outpacing bonds. The spread is now at 70.5s and I am printing up 75 euros! so feeling very happy to have turned this around.

Biggest week yet!

Pretty sure I am done for the week now, prices are moving away from anything I would be interested in trading. I pretty much just doubled my day in the last 50 minutes between 5 and 6pm, glad I stayed! Everything just thinned out and there was a schatz stop and all worked out nicely for me.

This week has been my best yet, around £1600, net!

I couldn't be more happier to have had such a good start. Also the spread blew out massively during Trichets press conference yesterday and then this morning went up again and I was really cautious to sell and picked my levels and traded smaller size as conditions were extreme. It has been a long week, stressful and fun, i feel absolutely shattered, so I guess that means its pub time ^_^. Graph is gross profit for the week.

April

My first month back, not a normal month because I don't pay desk fee until next month and I only was able to trade 14 days. Nonetheless the last 4 days were good! and after costs and rebates I made about £2000.

I will withdraw £500 as I need the money and look to withdraw another £500 next month. I hope my account will still be able to grow but already I am realising how much easier it will be now that my desk fee is half as much as before. Trading remotely suits me alot better, I can trade easily up to 9pm because I can go between home and the office without travelling! I can sleep in longer which is great because I aways need a lot of sleep to fully function.

I also think I did well scalping the bund/bobl/schatz fly when the range was tight, it's tougher because there's 3 legs but I prefer it to the euribor/schatz which gives little room to improve your skills on.